Who’s Gonna Get Trumped, Donald or Clinton? —Gboyega Adejumo

By Ikenga Chronicles May 4, 2016

Last night Tuesday 3rd of May, Ted Cruz dropped out from the 2016 Republican party presidential primaries, after he lost in Indiana.

Ted was not expected to simply drop out on Tuesday…

Just a few day ago, he in fact tried to show that he’s in it until the end, by naming the former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina as his running mate.  Obviously that didn’t help as many felt he chose Fiorina because she’s a woman. Only a few, however, believe he chose her because she’s the best candidate for vice president. The move was better interpreted as a desperate attempt and too glaring an effort aimed at revitalizing his campaign.

The Truth is, Ted simply has an image problem!

Ted Cruz the man, has for some reasons–real or imaginary– failed to cut the image of a nice gentleman. Succinctly put, even his fellow Republicans just don’t want to be caught standing next to him or with him.

That the Republicans had a better candidate than both Cruz and Trump in Rubio, yet the Republican voters prefer Donald would mean there is a loud disenchantment with the American system of government. That there’s so much anger is evident.

But to think Donald Trump is the answer is reminiscent of the way the last election played out in Nigeria. Americans simply yearn for a change of some sort, but unlike the Nigerian situation, they know their presidential candidates, capacities and abilities. Just the little matter of choosing the Establishment’s candidate—Hillary— or a not too neck deep in politics but grossly green in politics Donald Trump.  And you just might ask, where is Bernie Sanders in this? I’ll surely get to him in a little while.

So, at the moment, it is all too sure that Donald Trump is the Republican party candidate.
Same day, on Tuesday 3rd of May, Donald Trump reached a new high among Republicans in a national NBC News/Survey Monkey poll. The real estate mogul has 56% support, from his Republican base. However, an additional 7% remain undecided.

Trump is the only Republican candidate  left –after Ted Cruz’s exit–with any mathematical path to securing the GOP nomination outright —even though Trump still falls short of the requisite 1,237 delegates. The other aspirant left in the race is Kasich, the Ohio Governor, who has only won in just one state since the primaries started.

It seems that it is all down to Hillary and Donald to go head-to-head in November!

As at today (perhaps till November), in a head-to-head matchup, I would stick out my neck and predict Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump! Although many exit polls won’t start until much later, the available polls however, have Clinton trumping Trump in various ranges of 14%, 12% and by as low as 6%.
But the polls alone do not tell the full and complete story.The demography do not seem to be helping the Republicans at the moment.

The Republican demography — whether with Trump, Cruz, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan as the flag bearer– is not so friendly. For an emphatic example, in the last six elections, there are 13 states that have gone for the GOP presidential nominee. But they only total 102 electoral votes. That means the eventual nominee has to find, at least, 168 more electoral votes to get to 270. Whereas as it stands with the various polls and demography, Hillary may just be looking for a mere 28 electoral votes.

Here’s how it just might add up!

If Hillary should win the traditional Democrats 19 states, and Washington DC, that every Democratic nominee has won from 1992 to 2012, she will have 242 electoral votes!
Al Gore lost Florida and George Bush won. But, would Florida forget no one messed it up more than George Bush who turned the surplus of the Clinton years into a huge deficit 7 years later? That Bush Jnr was polling 20% job performance range in his last year in Florida was not a mistake. Folks lost their pensions, homes, jobs. It may take a long time, before they vote back a Republican. So, add Florida’s 29 electoral votes and you get 271. Game over? Maybe not quite.

Trump is not oblivious of the demographic issue. He is tapping seriously into one area – -the Anger in America. Trump is still a smart dude who has the mind of a capitalist and the soul of a Gungho Hollywood character. The white Americans love him. The white supremacists love him more. Trump’s supporters are mostly the racist good ‘ol boys who think he’ll take the country back to what “it used to be”. They still can’t believe a black man was elected President not once, but twice. Trump found a way to tap into that anger because he completely threw being classy out of the window.

Bu here’s what Donald may have gotten wrong;

What has become increasingly clear is that any state with a large or growing non-white population has become more and more difficult for Republicans to win. Virginia and North Carolina, long Republican strongholds, have moved closer and closer to Democrats of late. Obama won both states in 2008 and carried Virginia in 2012.

The racism within the GOP has always been hidden and subtle, but Trump went south and that enabled him to gain the momentum he needed within the party which created sleepless nights for the GOP mainstream establishment. Folks are more motivated than ever to ensure their votes count against this implication of Trump’s candidature. It appears, “them, racist good ‘ol boys” are simply out populated right now!

More and more immigrants who didn’t bother registering and others who took things easy with not pushing through their papers suddenly are now interested in one thing — voting against Trump!

What got him Trumped in–the anger of them white supremacist– is what’ll also get him Trumped out.Hate has never been a sure platform to help win elections.

While his dismal numbers among women and Hispanics, to name two groups, don’t help matters and could — in a worst-case scenario — put states like Arizona and even Utah in play for Democrats, the demographic problems that face the GOP have very, very little to do with Trump or even Cruz.

Simply put, the Republicans have more than a mountain to climb! Apart from woman, Blacks and Hispanics giving Hillary the majority votes, the changing demography would also give Hillary the boost. She is simply set to become the 45th president!

It’s that simple. Well, except that she still has good ‘ol Bernie and the FBI and an issue with a certain handling of her official emails while serving as Secretary of state to deal with.

So, if it appears Hillary Clinton has a certain edge over any of the Republican candidates, why would there be a mention of Bernie Sanders – seeing as Hillary also seemingly has a commanding lead in the Democratic presidential primaries– as a possible threat to a Hillary victory?

A certain number of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters believe Sanders should continue challenging Clinton through to the Democratic National Convention in July.
For one, truth be told, the Vermont senator is a lovable guy who appears to speak from the heart to the hearts. Only for his age most would have preferred him over Hillary.

After Hillary took most of the delegates and states in the June 7 primaries, leaving Bernie with only a win in Rhode Island, many people still urged him to go the whole road through to the July convention. Just a few felt he should drop out. If it were to be somebody else, the curtains would by now be drawn for him. Clearly, the Democratic party establishment favours Hillary and the super delegate votes are almost all for her.

According to the latest polls forecasts, Hillary Clinton holds a 14-point lead over Bernie Sanders nationally (54% to 40%, with 6% undecided). Yet, Democrats cannot afford a divided house as we approach July. Bernie’s followers must back Hillary now, for the good of the party.

Trump is a fox and no one should underestimate his ability to unite the damaged Republican party and gain the confidence of his estranged party leaders. Bernie Sanders should simply and graciously suspend his campaigns now and Hillary should offer the olive branch.

There is still the issue of Hillary’s e-mails. However, a little respite came about a week ago when the Pentagon–a traditional Republican leaning, all too powerful military headquarters– released a statement which appears not in support of the prolonged number of hours the Republicans in Washington have spent on the inquest into the incident that happened in Benghazi, Libya, in which about 5 American diplomats were killed.

All things being equal, the world should prepare for a first female President of the United States to be sworn in on 20th January, 2017!

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